From Market Assumptions to Market Leadership

How Evidence-Based Research Transformed a Traditional Wine Distributor

The Problem with Marketing Today

Most businesses make critical marketing decisions based on assumptions, not evidence. They conduct focus groups asking, “What do you like?” Run surveys measuring “importance of price versus quality.” Then launch creative campaigns based on gut feelings and industry best practices.

The result? Millions in wasted marketing spend and missed opportunities.

This is exactly what happened to a 25-year-old Spanish wine distributor we recently worked with. Despite premium product quality and industry awards, they’d hit a revenue plateau. Traditional B2B channels were reaching saturation, and younger demographics remained completely inaccessible through existing retail partnerships.

Sound familiar?

The Critical Question That Changes Everything

Instead of asking “What marketing should we do?” we started with a different question: “What does the evidence tell us about market opportunity?”

This distinction is crucial. Most companies jump straight to tactical solutions—creative campaigns, price promotions, influencer partnerships. We began with systematic research to eliminate assumptions and base every strategic decision on validated evidence.

The Research Architecture That Eliminates Guesswork

We employed what’s called “backwards market research methodology.” Rather than conducting research to generate interesting insights, we started with the business outcome needed and worked backwards to design research that would answer specific strategic decisions.

Our approach used a three-source validation triangle:

Government Statistical Analysis The Spanish National Statistics Institute revealed that 35% of wine consumers aged 25-40 represent a €2.8 billion market segment—far larger than industry assumptions suggested.

Industry Behavioural Research A Brand consumer segmentation study of 4,000+ consumers showed that “Engaged Newcomers” demonstrate 42% online shopping propensity—a behaviour pattern the wine industry had largely ignored.

Business Model Validation Analysis of Dollar Shave Club’s transformation proved that direct-to-consumer subscription models can eliminate 25-40% retail markup while building stronger customer relationships.

Convergent Evidence Reveals Hidden Opportunity

All three sources pointed to the same strategic opportunity: a €2.8 billion underserved market segment willing to purchase wine online, but only 12.5% of wine sales were currently digital.

The evidence shattered common industry assumptions:

Industry Assumption: “Young people can’t afford premium wine” Research Evidence: Target segment spends €15-25 per bottle, seeking value, not cheapness

Industry Assumption: “Quality speaks for itself” Research Evidence: Target values education over exclusivity—67% engage with educational content

Industry Assumption: “Traditional retail is sufficient” Research Evidence: 55.9% of the target segment prefers mobile shopping, underserved by current channels

Strategic Transformation Through Evidence

Armed with this evidence, we transformed the business model from traditional B2B distribution to direct-to-consumer market leadership, adapting the proven Dollar Shave Club methodology to wine retail.

The strategic response included:

• Direct-to-consumer subscription platform
• Educational content marketing strategy
• Mobile-first customer experience
• Community building and social proof integration

Every decision is traced directly back to research findings. When evidence showed a 55.9% mobile shopping preference, we implemented a mobile-first platform design. When research revealed social proof drives decisions, we integrated community reviews and ratings. When data demonstrated educational content engagement, we developed expert-curated wine education.

The Results Speak for Themselves

The systematic approach delivered measurable business outcomes:

Customer Acquisition Efficiency: €23 cost per customer versus €45 industry average—a 49% improvement through a targeted approach

Market Penetration: 2.3% of the target segment captured in 12 months, generating €1.2M revenue from digital channels

Customer Economics: €340 lifetime value over 18 months with 68% retention rate matching DTC benchmarks

Return on Investment: €45,000 research investment eliminated €200,000 in potential misdirected marketing spend while identifying a €2.8B market opportunity.

The Competitive Advantage That Matters

The transformation created sustainable competitive advantages that extend far beyond marketing tactics. While competitors rely on assumptions, our client now makes evidence-based decisions backed by multi-source validation.

This systematic research methodology becomes the real competitive moat—a replicable process for identifying market opportunities that others miss because they don’t look for them systematically.

What This Means for Your Business

This case demonstrates three critical principles for business leaders:

For Traditional Businesses: Systematic market research can identify untapped opportunities within existing markets. The methodology applies across any industry where customer behaviour data exists but remains unutilised.

For Digital Transformation: Success requires evidence-based strategy development rather than technology-first approaches. Understanding customer behaviour must drive platform design and feature prioritisation.

For Marketing Investment: Research investment that eliminates assumptions, delivers exponentially higher returns than creative campaign development. Evidence-based decisions reduce waste while identifying genuine opportunities.

The Framework You Can Apply

Our 6-step methodology proved transformative:

1. DIAGNOSIS: Market research revealed opportunity gaps
2. SEGMENTATION: Evidence-based target identification
3. POSITIONING: Strategic positioning based on customer insights
4. STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES: Measurable penetration metrics
5. TACTICS: Execution aligned with research findings
6. REVIEW: Systematic performance measurement

Key Success Factors:

• Backwards research design starting with business outcomes
• Multi-source validation eliminates single points of failure
• Direct translation of research findings into strategic decisions
• Systematic measurement and continuous optimisation

The Bottom Line

Marketing doesn’t have to be guesswork. With proper research architecture, traditional businesses can successfully compete against digital-native startups by leveraging systematic customer understanding rather than relying on industry assumptions.

The transformation from market assumptions to market leadership isn’t about having better creative ideas—it’s about having better evidence to guide strategic decisions.

Ready to eliminate assumptions from your marketing strategy?

At Diplomatik Group, we help established companies and ambitious startups become category leaders through comprehensive customer research, evidence-based strategy, and systematic brand building.

Our scientifically-proven methodology combines insights from Mark Ritson, Byron Sharp, and Scott Galloway to deliver measurable business outcomes.

Contact Sebastian Jaensch to discover how evidence-based research can transform your market position.

About the Author

Sebastian Jaensch is a Strategic Marketing Consultant with 20+ years of global experience helping companies become category leaders through evidence-based methodology. His systematic approach has transformed businesses across Germany, Belgium, UK, Singapore, and Australia.